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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.17 20:49:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/06/2010 20:55:08
Yo, dawg, so I hear you like all kinds of price estimates so I put some very-long-term price estimates in your normal price estimates !
TL;DR and heavy guesstimations of "just moderate freetard prevalence" vs "I'm in this just for the money":
P1s : 400-600 or ~2k
P2s : 8k-12k or ~30k
P3s : 60k-80k or ~220k
The lowball-ish but probably realistic estimates would drag hourly large tower fuel cost from ~230k to ~490k (which would not be THAT tragic overall, a doubling of fuel costs), the gruesome one up to ~970k (now that would indeed hurt).
It's won't be happening overnight though, as everybody who gives a damn already heavily stockpiled on fuels.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.17 21:14:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: Darthion Illys
I still believe those estimates might be a bit high, Akita.
The "high" numbers are the "you'd have to be somewhat rich to not participate" ones.
The "low" numbers are the "it's a decent enough for a lot of people" ones.
There's obviously an even lower "we can't stop here, this is MACROLAND" level of prices about just again as much below, but those were not "featured".
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.17 22:13:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Snabbik Shigen
You're not going to see any but the rarest of P1 for more then 100 ISK/u
So you're basically saying you're almost completely certain we'll be in "this PI stuff is for macroes" territory, profit-wise ?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.22 22:51:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/06/2010 22:52:29
Originally by: Fraa Jaad
Originally by: Akita T
So you're basically saying you're almost completely certain we'll be in "this PI stuff is for macroes" territory, profit-wise ?
Are you basically saying that you're almost completely certain that macros will have little to no effect on the PI market?
I don't see the reasoning in any projections based on a miraculous absence of macro influence in the PI market.
If we follow your line of thought, the numbers for PI work out as paying just a pittance, barely around 1 mil/day (or per hour or however you chose to set it all up) for P.I., which is a bit of a stretch, to be honest, considering highsec mining still yields quite a few mil ISK/hour and has a long-standing macro population assisting.
While not impossible (if demand for PI stuff is low enough to be fully filled by macros almost entirely), it's an unlikely scenario.
The macro influence is "built in" for calculation purposes when you have as a starting assumption an income level.
For instance, you can be almost certain there is heavy macro influence in mining ore, right ?
One can only assume PI macro-ing level will be somewhat comparable to mining macro-ing level EVENTUALLY (but much less so at the start since macros/bots will have to be designed and perfected first), so the best way to ESTIMATE all of it is to figure out a likely (eventual) profitability level for PI based on current (and upcoming) mining profitability level.
And then, you work back from the profitability level to unit prices, NOT the other way around.
Well, we might just have to wait and see, I guess.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.22 23:55:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Scout Ops
Stockpiled some stuff for next 9 months, but then??? Manufacturing costs will climb and im not sure prices of final products will follow accordingly. Probably manufacturers will eat these costs.
Not initially, maybe, but eventually, all costs get passed down to consumers 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.23 02:10:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Scout Ops
Originally by: Akita T
Not initially, maybe, but eventually, all costs get passed down to consumers
You never know, many manufacturers out there that love to sell under costs 
Barely under opportunity cost, and not THAT many 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.23 04:07:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Fraa Jaad
What's unlikely? That initially high prices in line with your projections will give the macro population sufficient incentive to develop macros for PI goods? [...]
Starting from that...
...then the likelihood that prices will keep falling in the near future, reducing the probability appropriate bots (that combine PI with mining or other ISK-making activities, as opposed to ONLY focusing on PI) will be created and/or employed on a large enough scale early on, making it less and less likely they'll be employed on an even large scale later on, and so on and so forth.
Oh well, who knows. Again, you may be right, but I hope you aren't.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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